At least since the current president took office, the American political system and the economy have been singing deeply discordant tunes. The political situation looks like it's teetering on the edge of crisis: Washington is consumed by the politics of scandal and personal destruction; the ruling party is dysfunctional; the outrage-polarization cycle is accelerating; the threat of political violence is unusually acute. The economy, meanwhile, feels stable and secure: Growth is chugging along, the stock market is soaring, the housing market is in high gear, and unemployment has reached historic lows.
But in the Wall Street Journal, Greg Ip reminds us that it's entirely possible that the economy, too, will plunge into mayhem in the foreseeable future:
If you drew up a list of preconditions for recession, it would include the following: a labor market at full strength, frothy asset prices, tightening central banks, and a pervasive sense of calm.
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