Donald Trump's election came as a surprise to most pundits and pollsters who had expected Hillary Clinton to win. One major reason they thought Clinton would win is that, over the course of the campaign, Republican identifiers and elites had doubts about Trump's temperament and ability to be President.
But as election day got closer, Republicans who had been reluctant to support him ultimately chose him over Clinton. In August 2016, the YouGov Recontact Poll—in which 5,000 people were ultimately interviewed 17 times between May 2016 and September 2017—showed that only 76 percent of Republicans said that they were voting for Trump, while 82 percent of Democrats were voting for Clinton. Over the post-Labor Day campaign period, Republicans moved to Trump, who got 92 percent of their vote on election day, with only 4 percent voting for Clinton. In contrast, 7 percent of Democrats voted for Trump and only 88 percent voted for Clinton. However, given the Democratic edge in identifiers (roughly a 5 percent advantage), Trump could not have won without taking the Independent vote. In the YouGov Recontact survey, 54 percent of said Independents voted for Trump, with only 34 percent voting for Clinton. Thus, Trump is President largely because Republican voters came around to him and Independents voted for him over Clinton.
Read Full Article »