Paul Ryan Gonna Paul Ryan: The Lame-Duck Speaker

Speaker Paul Ryan's announced retirement from the House raises the immediate and obvious question: what happens with a lame duck Speaker? Prior to President Trump's election, the Speaker openly refused to defend or campaign for the then-nominee, openly criticized his immigration reform proposals, and was widely seen as an antagonist rather than ally. Since the election, Ryan has been far less critical of the President, but now that the Speaker is retiring, there's an open question as to how he will manage his relationship with the President.

The conventional wisdom on retiring members is, broadly speaking, liberation. No longer constrained by reelection concerns, members are unshackled, free to pursue the topics, policies, and votes of their conscience rather than their constituents. To a large degree this is true. There's evidence retiring members change their voting patterns, skip votes more often, and pursue more tightly focused legislative agendas rather than emphasize parochial and widely varied issues. It's not a dramatic change in behavior but it's there.