One of humanity's oldest pursuits is inventing machines that reduce the labor-hours needed to perform tasks. History offers hundreds of examples, each of which seemed amazing at the time. In the modern age, we have seen the arrival of the automatic washing machine in the 1920s; the programmable logic controller (PLC), which enabled the first era of manufacturing automation in 1968; the word processor in 1976; and the first computer spreadsheet in 1979. And none of these or similar inventions triggered an era of endemic unemployment.
But now that America is finally approaching full employment, a chorus of experts claims that this happy situation will be short-lived. Their warning is not the usual one about unemployment rising again when the next recession hits. Instead, the proposition is more ominous: Technology is now finally able to replace people in most jobs. It is the age-old mantra of failed forecasters: This time it's different.
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