At first glance, President Trump's reelection chances don't look good. Stories about impeachment and presidential misbehavior dominate the news. Trump's disapproval rating is high. Independent voters are against him. GOP congressmen are retiring from suburban districts that trend Democratic. The generic ballot is about where it was last cycle. Trump's win in 2016, when some 78,000 voters in three states gave him the Electoral College, was a close-run thing. Seems hard to repeat.
And yet liberals are filled with apprehension. They are coming to recognize the potential size of the president's pool of supporters. They fret over the capacities and liabilities of the eventual Democratic nominee. And their concerns are related: Trump's ability to recapitulate or expand his winning coalition depends in large part on the identity of his opponent. Given these uncertainties, it would be foolish to predict Trump's fate. He might even be stronger than he appears.
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