At the debate tonight, all eyes will be on Pete Buttigieg, who has soared in recent polls and looks at this point like a Democratic frontrunner in Iowa and beyond. Except that I could have written a very similar paragraph about Joe Biden going into the first debate, Kamala Harris before the second debate, and Elizabeth Warren during the third debate.
Getting to first place in a poll does not count as much as staying there. The fall one year prior to a presidential election is when frontrunners in competitive races are like autumn leaves. They turn brittle and are swept away by strong winds. Consider recent history. In November 2011, one year before the 2012 election, the undisputed leader in the Republican primary was Herman Cain with 30 percent. Remember him?
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