If President Donald Trump is booted from office, the catalyst looks certain to be the November election, not impeachment. The Senate has yet to convene an impeachment trial, and the recent killing of an Iranian general could further complicate lawmakers' timing. But with a GOP firewall in the chamber holding firm, Trump's acquittal seems preordained, even though plenty of Republicans appear uneasy about his behavior. When I've asked them whether there was anything wrong with Trump's phone call pressuring Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to dig up dirt on Joe Biden, the answers are often evasive. “Oh, the call was very—I think it was well received by President Zelensky,” Representative Steve Scalise of Louisiana, a top House Republican, told me.
How has the president avoided a rebellion within his own party? No doubt congressional Republicans fear Trump because of his unshakable grip on the party's base. That's long been the case. But there's another reason they've shielded him from impeachment: He's wooed Republicans who can protect his interests, cultivating relationships with them in ways that are not always visible or understood. So much of Trump's presidency seems like a jagged break from history. Yet when it comes to reaching out to his own party, his method isn't all that different from that of his predecessors—and it's helping him survive the biggest domestic crisis of his presidency.