Shortly after the 2016 election, an editor from my alumni magazine emailed to say she was putting together a collection of essays exploring Donald Trump’s presidency and asked if I’d be willing to contribute an article on “lessons learned” from the election. My piece, titled “Beware the Confident Experts,” appeared in the March 2017 issue of the Princeton Alumni Weekly and laid out the case for the why the polls weren’t nearly as wrong in 2016 as the pundits were.
I went back through the data to show the race was objectively close, but that’s not how it was presented to the American people by the supposed experts.
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