The big question overshadowing “Who will win the presidential election?” is: “When will we actually know who won?”
The pandemic and historic levels of mail-in voting mean that we have reason to expect that certain states will be very, very slow to count their votes this year — while others will be at least relatively quicker.
Of the six key swing states that will most likely determine the election, the general expectation is that Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona are in a good place to count most of their votes on election night or soon afterward. Of course, the closer the margin in any of these states is, the longer it will take to settle who won, and unexpected problems may arise. But these states have at least done the bare minimum to prepare for the unprecedented number of mailed ballots pouring in this year.
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