While the commencement of the U.S.’s COVID-19 vaccination campaign has brought a much-needed positive news cycle, the realization that supply will be limited for many months is a reason for some emotional restraint. The Food and Drug Administration’s emergency use authorization for the Pfizer-BioNTech mRNA-based vaccine last week, and the approval of Moderna’s mRNA candidate this week, are important steps on the road to the pandemic’s end. But production ceilings mean that the U.S. will continue to experience the effects of the pandemic well into 2021.
Currently, the U.S. has secured a combined supply of 300 million vaccine doses from the two mRNA manufacturers — 100 million from Pfizer and 200 million from Moderna. As each vaccination requires the administration of two doses per person a few weeks apart, the purchase agreements in hand are sufficient to guarantee protection for only 150 million people, or around forty-six percent of the overall U.S. population (this calculation may be altered modestly by the news that some Pfizer vaccine vials contain an extra dose or two).
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