Georgia pollsters are one of the few sets of electoral statisticians in the country who could have spent the immediate days after the 2020 election proud of themselves. There were massive over-predictions for Biden in Pennsylvania, Florida, and Wisconsin, but Georgia pollsters consistently predicted a narrow win for Biden, and that is exactly what happened. Biden won Georgia by less than 13,000 votes; this makes it his smallest state victory. Today’s Senate runoff election has created whether Georgia is primed to become the only blue Bible Belt state.
Before the election, Georgia was a pipe dream for the Democratic coalition. Even temporarily flipping a state within the Bible Belt would be a massive blow to the Republican party and would render Florida a must-win. The Biden team began their campaign with this understanding and spent very little time or money in Georgia. By mid-September, the Biden campaign had only spent 50,000 dollars to the Trump campaign’s 12.8 million. In the later months they amped up their spending, but it was still dwarfed by the early spending by the Trump campaign.
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