This past year, there was an unprecedented homicide spike; over one-third across urban America. These increases followed an upward trend since 2014, the year in which Michael Brown was killed by a police officer in Ferguson, Missouri. However, underpinning the national trend has been the growing proportion of homicides of black men. In 2019, black male homicides were 60 percent more than white male homicides, up from 21 percent more in 2005. By contrast, among women, the ratio remained remarkably stable with black female homicides generally close to 56 percent of white female homicides. Thus, the 2020 spike is not simply an anomaly brought about by the pandemic but a continuation of a persistent trend driven by gun violence in black communities.
There are a number of explanations offered for the 2020 increases that I have earlier explored: the deepening of poverty and deprivation resulting from the pandemic; changes in policing and criminal justice; and an unintended consequence of the increased anger among black youth as a result of the sustained demonstrations against police actions. This essay will attempt to identify the factors which can explain the variation in homicide rate across urban America.
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