A transition from fossil fuels to a non-carbon-based world economy is underway, and its progress and fulfillment will affect the type of environment future generations encounter. Prompted by energy-diversification strategies and the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change, numerous countries are actively seeking ways to slow down or scale back use of fossil fuels, raise energy efficiencies, and promote the electrification of their economies. But questions remain about how fast the transition can occur and what the optimal path forward is.
In a new paper, we challenge conventional thinking and question why there is still so much discussion about keeping global temperature increases below the 1.5 degree centigrade threshold when this target is unlikely to be met. We also ask how far solar and wind power can and should be pushed, given the relatively low capacity factors of these renewables. Preference for these power sources often reflects a bias toward doing what is seen rather than what is unseen. Massive tracts of solar panels and windmills, along with the associated power lines and battery warehouses, are visible, whereas thermal insulation in buildings and other efficiency improvements are not.
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