With Democrats in full control of the federal government for the first time in more than a decade, an increase in the minimum wage looks more likely than ever. Both President Joe Biden’s coronavirus stimulus proposal and a bill recently reintroduced by congressional Democrats propose raising the federal minimum to $15. Such a steep increase would have profound social and economic effects, boosting wages for some while driving others out of the work force. It could also contribute to another, less-expected consequence: a rise in crime.
A surprising body of research links increases in the minimum wage to increases in criminal offending by those most likely to lose jobs as a result of the wage hike. One analysis concluded that raising the federal minimum to $15 could create crime costs of up to $2.5 billion—a bill that would be borne disproportionately by the very people whom the wage hike is meant to help.
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