Will Tax Benefits Reverse Declining Fertility Rates?

This year has seen no shortage of plans to give families a financial boost, and the proposals have come from all sides of the political spectrum. The Biden administration’s American Rescue Plan directs the IRS to begin sending parents $3,000 per child, with checks scheduled to start flowing next month. Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT) has proposed a universal child benefit that would improve on the Biden administration’s plan by consolidating it with some other tax code provisions. Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) introduced a bill that would provide $1,000 a month to households with children at home, so long as the parents meet a modest work requirement.

These plans have sparked lively discussions across the Right, especially given concerns about the record-low birth rates during the pandemic-stricken year of 2020. To some extent, these low birth rates were to be expected: Pandemics and the associated economic distress are generally linked to lower fertility. But part of what makes these trends worrisome is that they predate COVID-19. Even in 2019 — one of the strongest economic years in recent history — birth rates were already showing a marked downward trajectory. Yes, Covid caused a baby bust; but we were heading in that direction anyway.

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