Gibraltar vs. Hillsdale: A Modest COVID Comparison

As America heads into month 19 of “fifteen days to flatten the curve,” the great hope remains that mass vaccination will allow the world to return to something resembling normalcy. In America, that means a massive campaign to compel the millions of as-yet unvaccinated people to get the jab. The federal government and the medical community are urging people to get vaccinated. Local governments like New York City are requiring proof of vaccination as a condition of venturing into most public venues. California business organizations are begging the state to enforce vaccine mandates. Employers are beginning to demand that employees be vaccinated as a condition of employment.

With tens of millions of Americans now vaccinated, and many more around the world, it would be useful to step back and reflect on the fruits of these endeavors. What effect has vaccination had on the number of cases and fatalities? How have vaccinated and unvaccinated communities fared overall? What can we therefore conclude about the efficacy of mass vaccination against COVID-19?

Fortunately, not only is there an embarrassment of data riches on the subject, we are also far enough into the process of mass vaccination where we can begin to see how vaccination is playing out around the world, and close to home. We have examples of communities with high vaccination rates, and others with relatively low vaccination rates, so we can identify useful points of comparison.

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