Republicans shouldn’t be discouraged by the failure of the vote to recall California governor Gavin Newsom. While it is well known that Democratic registrations in the state show almost twice as many Democrats as Republicans, Republicans and independents taken together slightly outnumber registered Democrats. The possibility of a successful recall therefore hinged on independents strongly supporting the recall and a Democratic electorate sufficiently unhappy with Governor Newsom’s reign to not bother voting.
During the summer, polls showed that the recall effort had a chance of succeeding. After the race was over, given the landslide vote in Newsom’s favor, some blamed pollsters for having done a bad job of polling, but that’s incorrect. The recall could have succeeded had the national Democrat establishment remained as complacent as its leaders were until the polls brought home to them the danger they were in. They suddenly realized that the national progressive agenda would be in peril if Newsom were defeated. When they read the mid-summer polls and learned of widespread dissatisfaction with Newsom even among the party base, the party leaders panicked, and they had good reason to do so.
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