Tacked on after the news—always following the human interest “cats up trees” story—the poor old weatherman would be cursed by legions of fishermen and hunters who’d taken his sunny forecasts seriously when they stood around next day in rapidly filling wellies or sat sodden on miserable horses. The professional meteorologists who proved less than reliable were safely hidden from view while a named journalist (often one who knew nothing of the underlying climate science) carried the can.
Forecasting is a mug’s game—as the Bank of England and every economist who ever claimed that immigration doesn’t exert downward pressure on wages—can now confirm. Along, of course, with a lot of epidemiologists, public health authorities, and astrologers. Which is why, when English barrister Sarah Phillimore predicted the Court of Appeal in Bell v Tavistock & Portman NHS Trust would hold that the High Court was wrong to make a declaration on “disputed and controversial” evidence about puberty blockers for children under 16 but would also remind clinicians of their duty to take informed consent seriously, my response was a deeply British, “brave, Minister, very brave.”
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