The 2021 elections attracted major news. The gubernatorial races of Virginia and New Jersey both showed double digit improvements for Republicans. Other races in the state have also shown good news for Republicans. Between Republicans capturing the House of Delegates in VA and the long-time Democratic NJ Senate President Steve Sweeney unexpectedly losing, these two states have given Republicans plenty to celebrate, but also show that if the political environment does not change over the next year, Republicans will likely capture both houses of Congress.
However, these are still just two states, and the United States has a diverse political makeup in its states and congressional districts. Additionally, candidates do matter, and former VA Governor and 2021 Democrat nominee for Governor, Terry McAuliffe, had a serious gaffe. This is all not to undercut the accomplishment of Republicans in their results in VA and NJ, but instead to show the limits of forecasting off of two states. Fortunately, many other states had races on Tuesday that can provide insight on the midterm elections.