The incumbent president’s party almost always struggles during midterm elections. But President Joe Biden may face a particular challenge no president has faced in midterms for nearly 50 years: declining incomes due to high inflation.
This is rare. University of Denver political scientist Seth Masket has modeled how changes in real per capita disposable income are related to midterm results for the president’s party. The metric helps capture how the economy is experienced by the average voter: are their wages going up or down, when adjusted for inflation? Can they afford more things, or fewer?
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