Predicting the outcome after days of war in Ukraine is a fool’s errand; devastation, fierce resistance, or a fragile peace lurks around every corner. What we can say about the confrontation is what Ukrainian official Svitlana Krakovska uttered at a U.N. climate conference on Sunday: “Human-induced climate change and the war on Ukraine have the same roots: fossil fuels and our dependence on them.”
Russia is a major supplier of oil and gas, especially to Europe. Oil prices hit triple digits after last week’s invasion, which factors into the cost of shipping goods. Inflation was already spiraling before the conflict, and recessions traditionally proceed from oil spikes. Barring Russian energy from global markets would worsen these problems. This risk has led to economic sanctions, the West’s main tool to respond to Russia’s war of choice, that come with an asterisk.
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