History and the Road to 2024

The single most predictive factor for midterm election results is a sitting president's approval rating. According to the RCP Average, President Biden's current approval rating has dipped below the previous all-time low he recorded in November of 2021. Combine this with historical precedent that the incumbent's party faces a backlash at the midterms, and you begin to understand why experts are predicting Republicans will take back the House, possibly the Senate, too. But what about the presidency? If Biden's approval rating continues to slip, many in the party may look elsewhere for a candidate capable of retaining power in 2024. Some speculate that Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg has the best opportunity to present his case to voters as he travels the country promoting the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. That may be true, but polls show Vice President Kamala Harris is the leading alternative, for now. "It's hard to imagine she wouldn't get it, if the president doesn't run," says author and political writer Bob Riel. "I think the Democratic party is not necessarily united behind Vice President Harris. She's not a powerhouse, and she didn't run a great campaign last time. I could certainly see someone challenging her, like Sen. Klobuchar or Secretary Buttigieg, maybe somebody from the left. But it's hard for a VP to lose a nomination, if she wants it." Read Full Article »