Speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore in June, Japanese prime minister Fumio Kishida expressed what many have come to fear: “Ukraine today may be east Asia tomorrow.”
“East Asia” is euphemistic for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, where the latest polling indicates that Taiwanese no longer believe the U.S. would fight a war with China on behalf of Taiwan, and only a third of Taiwanese people believe Taiwan has made adequate preparations to defend against a Chinese invasion.
Given China’s rising military power and longstanding ambitions to “reunify” Taiwan to the mainland, such fears are not unreasonable. President Biden’s recent remarks in Japan on American resolve to take military action were China to invade Taiwan, later clarified by aids to emphasize acts short of war, illustrates Taiwan’s need for an autonomous deterrent capability.
Taiwan has something Ukraine did not have: a “Silicon Shield.” The shield, at the center of which is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), which produces 90% of the world’s leading-edge semiconductors including the latest M2 Apple chip, is intended to function like oil did for Kuwait in 1990: as something so important to the global economy that the United States would be compelled to protect it.
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