President Biden may have the rarest of political openings — the possibility of becoming only the third administration since the Civil war to retain or pad its House and Senate margins in a midterm election (1934 and 2002). The similarities with these precedents are striking. Like both FDR and George W. Bush, Biden has notable legislative accomplishments to tout. And all three faced singularly unpopular opposition — in Biden’s instance the batty Republican Supreme Court stripping rights from voters.
Should Biden succeed in adding at least two anti-filibuster Democratic senators in the midterm elections, the following two years could be as transformational as the New Deal and Great Society. Turning this pipedream into reality requires that Democrats improve their standing with noncollege or working-class voters. Many issues are important to this cohort, but a recent analysis of Midwest factory towns makes a compelling case that economics is paramount.
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