A Second Iranian Revolution?

The strange echoes of the 1970s over the past 18 months—with runaway inflation, an energy crisis, and an expansionist Russia—were startling enough. And then a revolt began in Iran, just as one did beginning in 1978. It features an aging autocrat who’s dying of cancer and overseeing a rebellious nation that has tired of his rule and the corruption of his cronies. History may not repeat itself, but it is surely rhyming in the streets of Tehran. And indeed, the best way to chart the possible trajectory of the current Iranian revolution is to look at the last one.

“Iran because of the leadership of the shah, is an island of stability in one of the more troubled areas of the world,” said President Jimmy Carter during a visit to Iran in 1977. Although Carter’s unfortunate toast would be much ridiculed in the years ahead, it is important to note that until the last days of Mohammad Reza Shah’s Pahlavi dynasty, Western chancelleries and intelligence services as well as the foreign-policy intelligentsia were united in their belief that somehow the cagey monarch who had weathered so many crises would survive the latest one.

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