The Shrinking 2024 Election

First, some caveats. Election 2024 is more than a year and a half away. A week is a lifetime in politics. The future is never a straight-line projection of the present. Unexpected events shape outcomes in ways that are impossible to predict. And early frontrunners—Joe Lieberman in 2004, Hillary Clinton in 2008, Jeb Bush in 2016—often lose.
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