The Biden/Harris administration has unleashed a torrent of new regulations, marking a record high in the Spring 2024 Unified Agenda of Federal Regulations. This surge is not an isolated event but rather a continuation of a historic acceleration in regulatory cost growth. The implications of this relentless regulatory expansion are profound, not only for the remainder of this administration but also for the future if this trend continues beyond January 2025.
Since the 1980s, the Unified Agenda of Federal Regulatory and Deregulatory Actions has served as a semi-annual snapshot of the regulatory priorities and initiatives of federal departments and agencies. Traditionally, it has been a tool for transparency, aimed at informing the public and stakeholders about upcoming regulations and the status of ongoing efforts. However, under the Biden/Harris administration, the Unified Agenda has evolved into a manifesto for an unprecedented regulatory blitz.
The Spring 2024 edition of the Unified Agenda, released over the July 4th weekend, lists a staggering 3,698 rules at various stages of development from over 60 federal entities. This is a significant increase from the 3,599 rules in the Fall 2023 Agenda. The breakdown includes 2,361 active actions (pre-rule, proposed, and final rules anticipated soon), 689 completed actions (finalized in the past six months), and 648 long-term actions (anticipated beyond the next 12 months).
One of the most striking features of this Agenda is the implementation of Executive Order 14,094, "Modernizing Regulatory Review," which shifts the Office of Management and Budget's (OMB) role from regulatory oversight to advancing "net benefits" as defined by progressive leadership. This shift has raised the threshold for what qualifies as a "significant regulatory action" from $100 million to $200 million in annual economic impact. This redefinition has profound implications for how regulations are scrutinized and managed.
The Biden/Harris administration has been aggressive in its rulemaking, with the Spring 2024 Agenda presenting 287 "Section 3(f)(1) Significant" (S3F1) rules, a term replacing the previous "economically significant" label. These S3F1 rules have an economic impact of $200 million or more. Notably, there were 97 major rules completed in the past six months, compared to 53 in the Fall 2023 edition, indicating a rush to finalize costly regulations before the potential vulnerability to the Congressional Review Act (CRA) disapproval process in a future Congress.
This regulatory flood is not merely about numbers but about the economic and societal impact. Regulatory costs under the Biden/Harris administration have been growing at an alarming rate. According to our analyses at the CPAC Foundation’s Center for Regulatory Freedom, the regulatory state has expanded by nearly 16% per year under Biden and Harris, a tempo that dwarfs the growth seen under previous administrations. This rapid increase has pushed the total cost of federal regulations from $2.28 trillion at the start of the Biden/Harris Administration to an estimated $3.65 trillion in just three and a half years.
The implications for small businesses are particularly severe. Under President Obama, the per-employee, per-year (PEPY) cost of regulations for small businesses rose from $7,762 to nearly $19,000. Under Biden, this cost has skyrocketed to $33,105, translating to over $331,000 for a business with 10 employees. The indirect costs, such as lost productivity and opportunity costs, amplify the burden. For every dollar in direct regulatory cost, there is a $19 multiplier in lost opportunity cost, making the total impact on a small business with 10 employees over $2.5 million.
The economic consequences are staggering. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Uncertainty Index has reached its highest level since the pandemic, reflecting widespread concern among small business owners about the regulatory environment.
Looking ahead, there are two potential paths. If the current regulatory tempo of 15.83% annual growth continues, the cost of the regulatory state could reach $7.6 trillion by 2030. In contrast, reverting to the historically low growth rate of 0.33% per year seen under President Trump would keep the cost around $3.7 trillion. The difference between these paths is stark: a regulatory burden that could cripple economic growth versus a more stable, predictable regulatory environment that fosters economic prosperity.
The recent Supreme Court decision in LoperBright, which overturned the so-called “Chevron Deference”, offers a glimmer of hope for those advocating for regulatory reform. This decision could pave the way for revisiting and rewriting major rules that have been rushed through by Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. However, the path forward will require vigilance and a concerted effort to ensure transparency and accountability in the regulatory process.
The Spring 2024 Unified Agenda is a testament to the Biden/Harris administration's regulatory zeal. The record number of regulations in the pipeline, coupled with the already historic tempo of regulatory cost growth, signals a challenging landscape for businesses and the economy. The stakes are high, and the choices made in the coming months and years will have lasting consequences for the regulatory state and the broader American economy. It is imperative that Congress, the courts, and the public remain vigilant and engaged to ensure that the regulatory framework serves the best interests of all Americans, fostering growth and innovation rather than stifling it.
Andrew Langer is Director of the CPAC Foundation’s Center for Regulatory Freedom.
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