State leaders must undertake a new role in defending our homeland against security threats. While the American public broadly recognizes China as our most serious security threat, our domestic policy response has not matched China’s aggression. The sooner our leaders adopt the mindset that China might launch a conflict upon the United States and our allies, the better we can prepare our homeland and protect all we hold dear.
Imagine, for a moment, that American governors had been able to look into a crystal ball in 2018 and foresee the pending supply chain disruptions and equipment shortages caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Armed with such pre-knowledge, they could have taken mitigating steps in order to avoid the extreme hospital shortages of everything from gloves, surgical masks, and respirators to diagnostic tests and equipment.
While the coronavirus pandemic was unforeseeable, it does not take a crystal ball to anticipate a global crisis caused by China’s bellicose behavior. In fact, China’s government has been extraordinarily forthright in preparing for armed conflict with America and our allies. State leaders must prepare state assets and supply chains for a Pacific conflict which, if it occurs, will cause magnitudes greater disruption than the coronavirus pandemic.
As recently as June, Chinese Coast Guard vessels deliberately rammed Philippine naval ships, engaged in dangerous blocking maneuvers and deployed water cannons on Philippine ships and sailors. A Philippine sailor suffered severe injuries during a mission to resupply an outpost internationally recognized to be in Philippine territorial waters, but which China claims as its own. Chinese harassment of the Philippine Navy has steadily escalated for years, and the 1951 U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty obligates the United States to assist Philippine military forces should such attacks escalate into open conflict.
Meanwhile, China’s People’s Liberation Army continues to conduct aggressive and provocative military drills around Taiwan, including a third simulated blockade along with a simulated full-scale invasion in May. Intelligence officers and naval commanders have warned that Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Chairman Xi Jinping wants his military prepared to take Taiwan by force no later than 2027, a timeline termed the “Davidson window” after U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Philip Davidson proposed it to the Senate Armed Services Committee.
The flashpoints in the South China Sea could erupt at any time. In fact, Xi could perceive America’s shifting political environment as an opportunity for aggression.
States should waste no time in conducting a Pacific Conflict Stress Test to analyze their vulnerabilities and secure critical assets ahead of disruption. Should hostilities erupt, the consequences for U.S. supply chains would be catastrophic, and notably worse than what states managed during covid. Furthermore, attacks on critical infrastructure would be concurrent to supply chain failures.
Decoupling from CCP-controlled supply chains reduces vulnerabilities. A number of states, for example, use Lenovo computers, which the Department of Defense Inspector General declared to be “known cybersecurity risks” that were previously discovered to have recorded data and transmitted it back to China. States should also catalogue sanctioned Huawei hardware that is littered across their communications systems, and cut off land purchases by CCP-linked entities, particularly in proximity to military installations.
Most importantly, contingency plans should be developed in case China severs critical pharmaceutical and power transformer supply chains.
China will likely target critical infrastructure in the event of a conflict. Water supply, electrical power delivery systems, telecommunications networks, and transportation systems could all be targets. In fact, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan wrote a March 18th letter warning governors of China-sponsored attacks on water treatment facilities. State lawmakers should be transparent about the general risks the state faces while building confidential solutions to specific threats.
Former National Security Robert O'Brien began each National Security Council meeting by reminding his team that “weakness – even a perception of weakness – is provocative in international relations.” Conversely, hardening critical infrastructure and diversifying supply chains projects readiness, allowing states to play a role in preventing conflict.
Governors and lawmakers know that an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. That’s why leaders in Arizona, Nebraska and Oklahoma have committed to conduct Pacific Conflict Stress Tests to prepare their states should the worst occur. Such preparations not only ensure states can manage through crisis, they also drive down the probability of conflict as America becomes a less vulnerable target.
Michael Lucci is the Founder and CEO of State Armor Action, a 501(c)(4) non-profit advocating for state policy solutions to the global threats posed by the CCP.
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