With all the noise surrounding tariffs and the changing rates for nations threatened weekly, there is a little-noticed war that will hit the consumers of tomatoes. The Department of Commerce announced in April that they were ending an agreement with Mexico that will spike the price of that fruit imported by 17%. This is bad news for unsuspecting consumers who don’t know that the tomatoes they love will end up being the next eggs with regard to prices.
Egg lovers will never forget late last year when they very likely encountered empty shelves at their local grocery stores. The Biden Administration ordered over 130 million chickens to be killed to contain a strain of the bird flu, leading to a huge spike in prices and supply disruptions. This was another effective talking point used by Donald Trump when he was running against Vice President Kamala Harris for President and contributed to the economic anxiety that boosted Republicans at the ballot box. The spike in prices was not caused by tariffs but is a good case study in how American consumers react when they lose access to products they eat every day.
This dispute is separate from the Trump Administrations threats for new tariffs to insource American manufacturing. Bloomberg reported on July 8, 2025, “Consumers may soon be paying more for fresh tomatoes as a decades-long deal with Mexico expires in less than a week, absent a last-minute deal or extension.” The company NatureSweet, an importer of tomatoes told Bloomberg that “there’s no scenario where I can absorb those tariffs,” because “the margins are not high enough.” The company will end up eating some of the cost, but the consumer will be hit with the brunt of the estimated hike of 10%.
The negotiation between Mexico and the U.S. on tomato tariffs has been ongoing since 1996. There is a deal titled the “Agreement Suspending the Antidumping Duty Investigation on Fresh Tomatoes from Mexico” that led to an ongoing agreement on the price of imported tomatoes. The Mexican producers agreed to a set price for the produce and that agreement has been in place and negotiated a few times since it was signed.
One troubling aspect is that the suspension of this agreement is being pushed by a special interest group. The Florida Tomato Exchange has been pushing the Department of Commerce to end the agreement to benefit Florida producers of tomatoes. Texas Governor Greg Abbott signed a resolution recently that declared “fresh tomatoes imported from Mexico contribute more than $7.5 billion to the U.S. economy and support nearly 50,000 jobs; more than half of the imported tomatoes enter through ports in Pharr and Laredo, with an estimated value of nearly $1.5 billion.” Florida politicians have won the war on imports at the expense of both businesses in Texas and American consumers.
The drop-dead date for an agreement to avoid this spike has already passed, and it appears that a deal to extend the deadline for a negotiation is unlikely. This is an important change in prices because government data indicates that 72% of fresh tomatoes were imported last year and 90% come from Mexico. Although this development was applauded by U.S. producers of tomatoes, it is not possible for American growers to make up the difference. The result will be higher prices for consumers and tomato scarcity.
Tariffs are taxes. Raising the price of any product ends up hurting both businesses that import and consumers facing higher prices. In this era where voters are focused on inflation, especially at the grocery store, it makes no sense to target a product loved by those wanting healthy fruits and vegetables for increased prices. Hiking the price on tomatoes will not Make America Healthy Again and will lead to many seeking cheaper, and less healthy, alternatives.
The Trump Administration should revisit this issue and suspend the tariffs until a decent agreement can be reached. Just hammering importers with this increased cost will not be well received by the vast majority who don’t care where they source high quality tomatoes, but who certainly will be enraged if they simply can’t get them anymore.
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