AI threatens to take all our jobs, starting with radiology – or, at least, that’s what some have predicted. Contrary to what has become common wisdom, however, new research suggests the job market for radiologists is safe and AI might make humans more valuable across the labor market, not less.
Many technologies replace the need for human action. Humble payroll software, for example, has eliminated the task of organization, calculation, and recordkeeping once performed manually. In much the same way, AI has the potential to take over the work a human could do on a broad scale and across many applications. That’s why technologist and scientist Geoffrey Hinton boldly claimed: “People should stop training radiologists now.” AI deep learning, the thinking went, would render humans obsolete, starting with occupations that relied on objective data analysis, such as radiologists. Ten years later, the numbers demonstrate how wrong he was.
Between 2014 and 2023, the number of Medicare-enrolled radiologists increased by 17.3%, even as AI adoption grew fast. The American College of Radiology is even sounding the alarm on a shortage of radiologists, not a surplus.
It isn’t that AI is performing poorly. On the contrary, AI adoption has already had a measurable impact on lives saved. In a retrospective study at a level-one trauma center, 30-day mortality among patients with intracranial hemorrhage fell from 27.7% before implementation of an AI triage system to 17.5% afterward. That’s a huge improvement, and just one of many examples of how AI is making healthcare better even as demand for skilled human judgement continues to grow.
Why is this the case? As with past labor market changes, great innovation allows greater efficiency for individual workers. This means we can find faster ways to solve old problems and tackle new problems we’ve previously failed to solve. As employers hire people to solve those new problems, it expands the labor market. Crucially, it also allows humans to spend more time on the complex tasks technology cannot currently perform independently. Radiologists can devote more attention to complicated or ambiguous cases, while AI can prioritize potentially urgent scans and assist with routine detection.
These innovations also make services available to those who otherwise may not have been able to afford them. Robo-advisors expanded the financial services industry by lowering the barrier to investing. Many new customers eventually want to expand beyond the robo-advisor and build a relationship with a real financial advisor.
Similarly, the introduction of ATMs lowered operating costs, allowing bank branches to open in new areas. This helped create new jobs for bank tellers who could perform valuable tasks while the ATMs took care of many repetitive tasks.
Over time, technological growth does eliminate some jobs and occupations. Bank teller employment has fallen with digital banking, branch consolidation, and changing consumer behavior. But the decline has not been severe or catastrophic and displaced bank tellers often transition to roles that focus on customer relationships, fintech applications, or even fraud-detection. This is a common pattern in human history. New jobs and industries fill the gap. This is why, despite thousands of innovations over the past few decades, we have not seen rising unemployment.
This is not to say there will be no labor disruption. As individual jobs and occupations fade with new technologies introduced, we should recognize the challenge. But it is critical not to overstate this effect and the solution should be more opportunity not increased regulation. Even as AI will disrupt some workers, it also helps retrain displaced workers, so they can adapt to a new labor environment.
Human productivity has always, and will continue to, create opportunities for people to get to work. The effect of AI will empower individuals to dream bigger, solve problems that were once out of reach, and contribute even more to society.
Donald Kimball is the Communications Manager and Tech Exchange Editor for Washington Policy Center and a contributor with Young Voices.
Read Full Article »