Back in 1999, I published a paper in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society with Ken Kunkel and Stan Changnon titled “Temporal Fluctuations in Weather and Climate Extremes That Cause Economic and Human Health Impacts: A Review”. The paper looked at long-term trends in extreme weather in the United States based on the understanding that to understand whether climate has changed in ways that matter to people, you have to examine long-term, high-quality records of variable associated with the extremes that actually cause harm — and you have to try to distinguish any observed trend from the noise of internal variability.