Five Facts: Midterm Elections
This week, voters will go to the polls and cast their ballots in the midterm elections. These elections are typically viewed as referendums on the current president’s performance in office, and often result in a change in balance of power. This week, Democrats are working to gain at least the 23 seats they need take back control of the House, as all 435 House seats are up for re-election. Voters will also weigh in on a third of all Senate seats and 36 governorships across the country.
Here are five facts on the upcoming midterms, and how past voters have changed the course of political history:
1. In the past 100 years, there have been seven Congresses where one party controlled the Senate and the other controlled the House. This includes the 72nd Congress (1931–1933), 97th Congress (1981–1983), 98th Congress (1983–1985), 99th Congress (1985–1987), 107th Congress (2001–2003), 112th Congress (2011–2013), and 113th Congress (2013–2015).
2. During this same period, the Democrats have controlled the House for 65 years, while Republicans have controlled it for 35 years. However, pollsters predict it will be harder for Democrats to take back the House this election cycle than in years past. The New York Times reports that today, only nine Republicans hold seats that are in Democrat-leaning districts, compared with 24 Republicans holding such seats in 2006.
3. Historically, voter turnout is much lower in midterm elections than in presidential elections. In the 2008 election, over 57 percent of Americans who were of voting age cast their ballots, according to the Pew Research Center. However, in 2010, less than 37 percent of adults voted in the midterms, which changed the balance of power in the House from Democrats to Republicans.
4. While the president’s party usually suffers losses in the midterms, according to Gallup’s polling history, presidents with approval ratings lower than 50 percent lose more seats than those with approval ratings higher than 50 percent. Gallup reports that presidents with approval ratings below 50 percent lose an average of 37 seats, while those with approval ratings above 50 percent lose an average of 14 seats. Since 1946, the average midterm loss for a president’s party has been 25 House seats, Gallup highlights.
5. During the 1894 midterm elections, the Democrats lost 116 seats in the House of Representatives, giving Republicans control of the chamber and marking the largest seat flip in congressional history. A severe economic depression was the catalyst for the devastating losses for the Democrats. Many voters also held different views than President Grover Cleveland on tariffs and the silver standard (or pegging the currency to a certain amount of silver), and wanted to take action. Ultimately, close to 90 percent of House Democrats in the Northeast and Midwest lost re-election.
No Labels is an organization of Democrats, Republicans, and independents working to bring American leaders together to solve problems.
