While health care dominated the Democrats’ midterm messaging, likely 2020 candidates have already begun testing new economic arguments they hope resonate with voters.
In the last several months, Senator Kamala Harris introduced legislation that would provide tax breaks for low- and middle-class Americans, which she says would lift up millions of American families. Senator Elizabeth Warren introduced legislation to attack the rising cost of housing so that more American families can live in neighborhoods with good jobs and good schools. Others, like Senators Bernie Sanders and Cory Booker, have promoted big ideas like Medicare For All and a guaranteed jobs program.
Whether or not these pieces of legislation ever become law, Democrats seem to have learned they need to do a better job promoting messages rooted in economic opportunity. Yet if Democrats want to attract not just voters of color but also white working class voters, they might consider making more arguments about how they plan to spread opportunity and prosperity to a constituency that increasingly identifies with Republicans: Americans without college experience.
Consider that by the next presidential election, over two-thirds of the job openings in this country will not require a bachelor’s degree. One of the big reasons Donald Trump became president, it is now understood, was overwhelming support from white voters without a college degree. And that support continued during the midterm elections: White voters without a college degree went for GOP candidates by 25 points.
By most metrics, the economy is doing well, which may explain why voter concern for the economy is at a record low. And yet, despite a strong economic recovery, there is a talent crisis in this country exacerbating social and economic anxiety for many working-class Americans. Nearly five million opportunity youth — young adults who are out of school and out of work — are unable to find a path to self-sufficiency or a family-sustaining wage. At the same time, more than 12 million jobs will go unfilled over the next decade simply because employers can’t find the skilled talent they need for the 21st-century economy. This paradox is the result of a market failure: Our education and training systems are increasingly both out of touch with employers’ needs and out of reach for young adults — especially for those without a college degree.
As good jobs have shifted away from workers with a high school diploma, Democrats have pledged to ensure that American workers have access to the tools they need to fill the jobs of the 21st century through policy proposals such as the expansion of registered apprenticeship and work-based learning programs. According to data from Kantar Media/CMAG, however, only 15 percent of Democrats’ ads during the midterms mentioned the economy or jobs. Presumably fewer, let alone any, ads mentioned work-based learning programs such as apprenticeships or internships.
We know that the more education people have the higher their earnings are likely to be and that four-year colleges are not the only path for gaining skills that have real currency in the labor market. At a time when a majority of Republicans say colleges and universities have a negative effect on the country, perhaps it would be worth experimenting with ads that call more attention to the critical role community colleges, career and technical education programs, and apprenticeships have in our economy.
Consider the work being done in state governments.
In Colorado, Governor John Hickenlooper, who is considered likely to run for president himself, united his administration around a vision to deal with the skills gap employers cited. He convened a workforce and education cabinet bi-monthly and published a dashboard with key metrics to track progress towards talent development goals. In his final State of the State address he boasted of “igniting an apprenticeship renaissance” with CareerWise, a statewide high school apprenticeship program that is “connecting companies, talent, K–12 schools, community colleges, and training centers.”
To help support industry involvement in Utah, Governor Gary Herbert, introduced the Talent Ready Utah initiative , which aims “to expand career opportunities statewide by increasing the number of business and education partnerships.” Soon after, the Utah Legislature passed a bill to create the Talent Ready Utah Center within the governor’s office.
These policies are expanding statewide talent marketplaces and achieving more inclusive economic growth for workers across education backgrounds. Both Colorado and Utah rank in the top five states for employment and have higher labor force participation rates than the national average.
It’s also notable that Governor-elect Gavin Newsom ran a campaign in California, where the labor force participation rate statewide is at a 40-year low, promoting not just tuition-free community college, but promising to establish 500,000 apprenticeships and providing individual skills accounts for Californians looking to refresh and update their skills. And it’s encouraging that Governor Charlie Baker used his last State of the State address to tout new investments in Massachusetts’s vocational technical schools to upgrade equipment and expand programs.
Democratic candidates could benefit from doing more to translate successful statewide workforce policies into economic messages focused on connecting all Americans looking for opportunity with companies looking for talent. If they want to win in states like Indiana, Ohio, and Missouri, it might help if they spend more time talking about how they will use their bully pulpits to champion new norms for training and hiring Americans without bachelor’s degrees; how they would use their convening powers to align efforts of public and private sectors to achieve shared goals; and how they would level the playing field for all Americans without a college degree by correcting the mismatches that exist in the labor market.
It’s worth nothing that President Trump established an apprenticeship task force charged with identifying strategies and proposals to promote apprenticeships, especially in sectors where apprenticeship programs are insufficient. The centerpiece of the task force’s work is its proposal to build on the apprenticeship concept by creating a pathway to new, industry-recognized apprenticeships. And earlier this year, the president also signed into law the Strengthening Career and Technical Education for the 21st Century Act, a bill that includes a number of provisions that promote innovation, modernization, and alignment of workforce skills with labor market needs. Given the bipartisan support that exists for apprenticeship expansion and career and technical education reform, it’s surprising that Republicans and President Trump do not talk more about these accomplishments with voters.
No one should be surprised if health care and other pressing social issues continue to be a priority for voters in 2020, although those issues did not necessarily appear to convince red-state voters to elect Senate Democrats this year. A pre-baccalaureate economic message, however, that focuses on the investments needed to upskill Americans without bachelor’s degrees has the potential to switch the partisan script. By speaking more frequently about how they plan to correct the daily and structural inequities facing Americans without college experience, Democratic candidates can help shape new, powerful, and diverse narratives that communicate the values that Americans across education backgrounds share with each other, and the value Americans without bachelor’s degrees provide to our communities and to our country.
And if they make these arguments forcefully enough, Democrats might discover a new constituency willing to cast votes for them.
Jonathan Hasak is Director of Public Policy and Government Affairs at Year Up.
