2020 Will Be a Realigning Election, Led by Young Voters
“If you don’t vote, you don’t count” is an idea that must leave the ivory tower and plant itself solidly in the minds of younger Americans. While young people traditionally vote in lower numbers than older citizens, their votes still matter, especially in a time of increased engagement around issues of health, racism, and equality. No recent president has ever been more hated by young people than Donald Trump, and this generational opposition casts a very dark shadow on the future of the Republican Party, especially for those elected officials associated most closely with the president.
A new AEI survey shows that only a miniscule 5% of Gen Zers (born after 1996 and constituting 24 million eligible voters) have a “great deal” of confidence that Donald Trump is acting in the best interests of the public. Only 7% of Gen Zers believe that Trump is handling COVID-19 and related health and economic issues well. Millennials (born between 1981 and 1996, constituting 83 million eligible voters) echo Gen Zers. Just 14% of Millennials approve of Trump’s handling of COVID-19. He has shockingly few supporters among men and especially women under 40.
These poll numbers tell us that the “two Americas” narrative of Democratic cities and Republican rural communities is inaccurate. Even as Trump’s numbers plummet, the real divide is between younger and older voters. Baby Boomers (born between 1946 and 1964, constituting 73 million eligible voters) are five times more likely than Gen Zers to believe that the president acts in the best interest of the public. They are four times more likely than Gen Zers to accept that Trump is handling the COVID-19 crisis well. At 27 and 28 percent these numbers are still very low, but they capture the large gap between young and older voters – more than we have recorded before.
Of course, how these attitudes translate into voting behavior is complicated. Less than a quarter of Gen Zers and Millennials believe that voting matters in getting government to pay attention to their needs. A third of Baby Boomers and more than 40 percent of the World War II Silent Generation citizens express optimism about the power of their votes. The Boomers and Silent Generation voters follow election news closely – 69 percent and 75 percent respectively. Less than half of Gen Zers and Millennials – 42 and 44 percent respectively – do the same. They do, however, share information widely on social media. The majority of Americans under age 30 posted about current racial and political matters on social media in the last month.
What makes the current moment so interesting is that the ubiquitous protests against racism, and the president’s persistent provocations, are turning young citizens into active, enthusiastic political participants. They might not follow the traditional news closely, but they are organized passionately to voice their resistance to unjust uses of state power. According to new data from the Pew Organization, which has examined political behaviors related to race in the last month, younger Americans are appreciably more active than other cohorts of the population. They are sharing messages about politics, donating money to political organizations, and contacting political leaders more than before, and more than other age groups.
This data shows that our nation’s politics have changed. Young people are putting their time, energy, and money into political activism. They now have a reason to vote, and someone to vote against. And in November 2020 the Gen Zers and Millennials, with approximately 107 million eligible voters, will outnumber the Baby Boomers and Silent Generation, with less than 100 million eligible voters.
It should come as no surprise that Gen Zers are most likely to identify as Democrats, and not Republicans. Forty-one percent of Gen Zers, however, are still self-identified independents, which is notably higher than the 26% for the older Silent Generation. This suggests that although they know what they are against, many young voters do not exhibit partisan loyalties. They are still persuadable and open to pragmatic leadership with a uniting vision; their hearts and minds are still open and wanting real practical positions.
Voter motivation and access matter more than ever. Young citizens are highly motivated, but advanced registration and onerous voter identification requirements often discourage them. More significant, many young voters are wary of going to a public polling place during the COVID-19 crisis. Only 11% of Gen Zers and 17% of Millennials are “very comfortable” congregating in public voting places. Boomers and Silent Generation voters are, in fact, only slightly more sanguine about the safety of traditional voting places, with 25 and 22 percent responding that they are comfortable respectively.
Young people will matter in the 2020 election more than ever – as a larger voting bloc with higher turnout than we have seen in decades. And they will vote decisively against what they perceive as incumbent leadership that has mismanaged the COVID-19 crisis, among other issues, and does not care about the interests of the public. Instead of further alienating these voters, who will dominate our politics for many years to come, candidates from both parties would be wise to encourage mail-in voting and other forms of participation that build renewed faith in our democratic system, rather than the tempting desire to tear it down. 2020 has the potential to become a realigning election that jump-starts major policy reforms, led by young voters who are given reason to envision realistic alternatives to reaction or radicalism through democratic participation.
Samuel J. Abrams is professor of politics at Sarah Lawrence College and a visiting scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. Jeremi Suri is Mack Brown Distinguished Chair for Leadership in Global Affairs and Professor of Public Affairs and History at the University of Texas at Austin and host of the weeky podcast This is Democracy.
