2020 was a groundbreaking year for several reasons with COVID-19, civil unrest, and economic recessions immediately coming to mind. But one of the more enduring trends of that year may result from the presidential election. With former President Trump unlikely to serve a second term, and President Biden telegraphing his ambivalence toward seeking reelection (Biden would be 86 at the end of a second term), one has to wonder if the traditional 8-year presidency may be a relic of the past. While only ten presidents have sought reelection and been denied, shifting American voter expectations and priorities may result in consecutive two term presidencies becoming as infrequent as the one term is now.
The American attention span has never been shorter. 24-hour news cycles, smartphone ubiquity, near-universal social media platform access, and on-demand streaming entertainment all contribute to a population with access to instant gratification and more responsive demands. Political pushes for term limits highlight the growing concern citizens have over career politicians and a stagnation of policies. Significant momentum for limits on service length now even extend to Justices on the United States Supreme Court. Whereas political stability was prized in the recent past, the desire to have accelerated fluidity of personalities and policies in the White House may be an inevitable consequence of the modern age. COVID-19 has undoubtedly compounded this flux of the routine through its expansion of work from home, media consumption, federal relief packages, teleconferences, and social distancing.
Normalizing the four-year presidency may have its advantages. Growing economic and military concerns from great power competition contribute to the need for a flexible, responsive, and potentially unpredictable executive and commander-in-chief. A revolving door of presidents allow for more diversity of individuals and philosophies over a briefer period of time. Presidents can focus on enacting the immediate policies elected upon instead of weighing how their actions will impact their viability for a second term.
Although it will take 4 to 8 years before this theory can be more fully borne out, it is worth considering how the highest office in the nation is evolving in the 21st century. If President Biden opts not to run for reelection and his successor fails to win a second term, the American citizenry will have experienced 12 years of one term presidencies. That’s an eternity in politics and may be sufficient to reorient how long we believe a president should customarily serve.
William Taylor is an attorney based in Washington, DC. He is an alumnus of The George Washington University Law School and University of Colorado- Boulder.