Is Terry McAuliffe the Dick Thornburgh of 2021?

It was an off-year election with a popular former governor facing an opponent who had never before held elective office. The race was for the U.S. Senate, not a governor’s mansion, but there were similarities aplenty to this year’s gubernatorial race in Virginia – the underdog was a relative unknown, the favorite took the race for granted, and an issue emerged in the fall that gave the underdog a shot at victory. 

The state was Pennsylvania, the year was 1991, the race was for the Senate seat vacated by the death of John Heinz in an airplane crash, and the candidates were former Republican Governor Dick Thornburgh, then serving as U.S. Attorney General, and Democrat Harris Wofford, a former college president and past chair of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party.  

As the sitting Attorney General, Thornburg was better known that Terry McAuliffe is today. Wofford, while unknown to the average voter, had at least been active in his party and served in the Kennedy Administration. This year’s underdog, Glenn Youngkin, is described in his campaign’s news releases as a “political outsider.”

This year McAuliffe has appeared to take the race for granted early on. In 1991 Thornburgh, with a big lead in early polling, definitely did. Heinz died on April 4. Thornburgh waited more than four months, until August 15, to resign as AG and return to Pennsylvania to campaign. 

While Thornburgh was running the Justice Department, Wofford was campaigning on the pocketbook issues of extending unemployment benefits, keeping jobs in the U.S., and tax cuts for the middle class. But the issue that caught fire with voters was his call for national health insurance. As national healthcare became the driving issue in the race Wofford surged, steadily closing the gap through the fall before crushing Thornburgh 55-45. 

Youngkin began his campaign in a position far better than Wofford’s. Polls conducted in the weeks following the June 8 Democratic Primary showed McAuliffe ahead, but with leads near or within the margin of error. Youngkin began his campaign addressing traditional Republican issues – better-paying jobs, tax relief, safer communities. But just as Wofford’s campaign capitalized on a call for national health insurance, Youngkin’s campaign is closing strong on the issue of parental involvement in education.

The turning point in this year’s campaign was the September 26 debate in which McAuliffe said, “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach.” The next day the Youngkin campaign was running social media ads with the quote and by the weekend a full-blown TV campaign highlighting the quote was underway. Shortly thereafter Youngkin’s campaign had the momentum and McAuliffe campaign was on the defensive. On the weekend before the election, the Real Clear Politics polling average had Youngkin up by 9/10s of a point.  Even if Youngkin loses narrowly, the race will show a major partisan shift in a state Biden carried by 10 points.

Why is this analogy any more than an interesting bit of political trivia? Look at what happened the next year, 1992. George H.W. Bush was the early favorite to win reelection over a man his campaign described as “the failed governor of a small state.” That governor, Bill Clinton, had the same campaign team that guided Wofford to victory the year before, James Carville and Paul Begala. When the votes were counted, Clinton was the President-elect. Democrats won 21 of 36 Senate elections to maintain their 57-43 advantage and picked up two governors. Despite benefitting from redistricting, Republicans gained only nine seats and remained in the minority with just 176 seats. 

Will the past of 1991 be prologue for 2022?  Republicans certainly hope so.

Bob Pipkin is a non-profit executive and recovering public affairs and political consultant.