The 2021 elections attracted major news. The gubernatorial races of Virginia and New Jersey both showed double digit improvements for Republicans. Other races in the state have also shown good news for Republicans. Between Republicans capturing the House of Delegates in VA and the long-time Democratic NJ Senate President Steve Sweeney unexpectedly losing, these two states have given Republicans plenty to celebrate, but also show that if the political environment does not change over the next year, Republicans will likely capture both houses of Congress.
However, these are still just two states, and the United States has a diverse political makeup in its states and congressional districts. Additionally, candidates do matter, and former VA Governor and 2021 Democrat nominee for Governor, Terry McAuliffe, had a serious gaffe. This is all not to undercut the accomplishment of Republicans in their results in VA and NJ, but instead to show the limits of forecasting off of two states. Fortunately, many other states had races on Tuesday that can provide insight on the midterm elections.
Seattle City Attorney Election
In the Seattle City Attorney election, Ann Davison, a Republican, defeated Nicole Thomas-Kennedy, a Democrat. Now there are a few caveats in this race. First, though both candidates’ political affiliations were known, the race was officially non-partisan, so it is not as if Seattle voters saw a Republican affiliation next to Davison and chose to vote for her nonetheless. However, major cities across the US conduct “non-partisan” elections. Yet these cities overwhelmingly elect people who are openly Democrats, so having a Republican affiliation does hold back candidates in other municipal races, even if they are officially “nonpartisan.” Still, the Democrat incumbent, Pete Holmes, did fail to advance to the run-off, so Thomas-Kennedy did lack the full support of the Democratic establishment.
Regardless, the race focused on a larger debate Republicans and Democrats have had, “law and order” versus “massive changes in prosecutions.” The policies advocated by Thomas-Kennedy were not that different than those of Los Angeles District Attorney George Gascón or San Francisco District Attorney Chelsea Boudin, along with other “Progressive” elected prosecutors. Just one year ago, in King County, the county that contains Seattle, former President Donald Trump only received 22.2% of the vote, and Seattle is generally considered to be to the left of King County as a whole. So, non-partisan election or not, before this election, it would be difficult to imagine anyone with any affiliation to Republicans to be elected in Seattle.
While not every Democrat is as far left as Thomas-Kennedy, few Congressional districts and states are as friendly to Democrats as Seattle.
Texas State House Seat
In a special election for a San Antonio TX House seat, Republicans won the election by two points, after President Joe Biden carried the district by 14 points a year ago. This swing is in line with the vote change seen in VA and NJ. Additionally, this seat was a majority Hispanic district and a test of whether Republicans could continue to make gains with Hispanic voters. Moreover, since the race was in San Antonio, it also represents potential urban inroads that Republicans could make.
New York Local Races
While New York City Mayor-elect Democrat Eric Adams crushed Republican Curtis Sliwa, Republicans had far better fortunes in other races. Though voting is not complete, so it’s tough to compare margins, Republicans still again outperformed their 2020 margins and made gains in traditionally Democrat areas. In the Nassau District Attorney’s race, Republicans currently lead there. This would be the first time Republicans have won that race in 20 years. Republicans also lead in the Nassau County Executive race. Biden won this county by about 10 points. Republicans also have a double digit lead in the Suffolk District Attorney race. Biden and Trump essentially tied in this county in 2020. Republicans also appear to be making gains in the New York City council races for the first time since 2009, another blockbuster year for Republicans.
These races concerned issues that Republicans have trumpeted nationwide. For example, Republicans in the Nassau and Suffolk District Attorney races focused on law and order, and took aim at liberal criminal justice reform policies. The Republicans in City Council races focused on similar issues and Covid-19 overreach. Furthermore, Nassau and Suffolk are specifically areas that had represented Republicans’ loosening grip on the suburbs, so as in NJ and VA, Republicans’ strong performance there could mean Republicans are making a comeback in the suburbs nationwide.
Pennsylvania Judicial Races
Pennsylvania has a pivotal gubernatorial and US Senate race in 2022. This year, Republicans had strong results in judicial races. Republicans won the major statewide judicial races, including a State Supreme Court race. The State Supreme Court race attracted a lot of money and even some national attention. In local races, Republicans also dominated, including in Bucks County, a county that Biden had made historic gains in for 2020 by winning it by four points, and Republicans won the judicial races by three to seven points.
What is particularly striking is that Democrats had strong turnout for an off-election year, with some of the losing Democrats receiving the most votes for a Democrat in Bucks County, but Republicans still managed to receive more votes. Republicans also increased their share of the vote in left-leaning counties.
Progressive Losses
While all of the races above could represent Progressive losses, there were particular races that pitted Democrats against more Progressive Democrats, where the less Progressive Democrats won out. In Buffalo, the incumbent Mayor had lost the primary to a Democratic Socialist, and then ran as a write-in for the general election, and ultimately won. In Minneapolis, the incumbent Mayor fought off a left-wing challenge. Additionally, Minneapolis voters rejected a ballot initiative that would have abolished the police. These Progressive defeats in Minneapolis occurred, even as off-year turnout hit record highs. Seattle saw similar results in their city races, where the more moderate candidate for Mayor, won by 30 points. The more moderate candidates also won in city council races.
These results do not mean Republicans are going to dominate the cities come 2022. Additionally, Boston did choose the more Progressive candidate for Mayor. Still, these overall results should give Democrats some pause. Progressives have been rapidly taking over the Democratic party. If Democrats nominate candidates like the ones who lost in Seattle, Buffalo, and Minneapolis, and there is not a more moderate Democrat alternative, but instead a Republican, while many more moderate left-leaning voters might hold their nose and vote for the Progressive, if Republicans can even cut off a fraction of the vote in these left-wing bastions, that could greatly help Republicans statewide.
If there was a bigger loser than Democrats in the 2021 elections, it was Progressive Democrats. The races covered by this piece show a pushback against Progressive policies, in most cases, by wide margins, as seen in VA and NJ. A close look at all races and county results, repeatedly show a massive shift against Progressives. While a lot could change in the next year, it is nearly impossible right now to suggest the Republicans would not dominate the midterm elections if they were held today.
Todd Carney is a writer based in Washington, DC. The views in this piece are his alone and do not reflect the views of his employer.