Five Facts on a Potential Biden-Trump Rematch
If current polls and predictions hold, American voters will show up on Election Day next year to find two familiar names at the top of their ballots. President Biden has indicated he plans to run for reelection as the Democratic nominee, while former President Trump maintains a commanding lead over a field of would-be Republican contenders. Here are Five Facts on a potential rematch of the 2020 presidential election.
- A Trump-Biden ballot would be the first two-party presidential rematch since 1892.
If Donald Trump and Joe Biden are the two major party nominees next year, it will be only the second time in history where a president faces their predecessor in a rematch. In 1892, Grover Cleveland defeated Benjamin Harrison after losing to him in 1888, becoming the only president to date to serve two non-consecutive terms. One partial exception is Theodore Roosevelt, who unsuccessfully ran under the third-party Bull Moose Party in 1912 to compete against his former protégé, Republican President William Howard Taft.
- Biden and Trump are roughly neck-and-neck in polling.
In 2020, President Biden took 51.3% of the popular vote to Donald Trump’s 46.8%. Today, polling shows the two former presidents virtually tied in head-to-head polls. A March 23 HarrisX/Harris Poll gives Trump a four-point lead over Biden, while Morning Consult puts Biden at 43% to Trump’s 42%.
- A Trump-Biden rematch would feature two candidates who have held negative favorability ratings for the majority of their time in office.
According to FiveThirtyEight, President Biden has held a negative approval rating since August 2021, around the time of the disastrous Afghanistan withdrawal. Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s net approval rating fell below zero a mere 10 days into his term, and failed to get out of the red for the rest of his presidency.
- Trump and Biden would be two of the oldest presidential candidates in the nation’s history.
On Election Day 2024, President Biden will be 82 years old – making him the oldest presidential candidate in history – while former President Trump will be 78. They would both be the oldest presidential candidates to ever run for reelection.
- A large majority of each party would like a different nominee on their party’s ticket.
An Associated Press poll from January showed that most voters would prefer for President Biden and former President Trump to step aside for fresher faces, with 78% of respondents not wanting Biden to run again, and 72% feeling the same way about Trump.
No Labels is an organization of Democrats, Republicans, and independents working to bring American leaders together to solve problems.
