America is at a crossroads. After decades of industrial decline, driven by a rules-based global trade system that failed to protect domestic competitiveness, a realignment is underway. The United States, under the Trump administration’s tariff doctrine, has challenged this broken order in a bold effort to restore the country’s economic foundation.
For more than forty years, successive U.S. administrations accepted the premise that global trade liberalization would inevitably lead to competitive domestic markets and political democracy around the world. But this assumption has proven dangerously flawed. While the U.S. opened its markets, many countries maintained—indeed deepened—distortions in their domestic economies. These distortions gave their producers unfair cost advantages and led to surging exports at artificially low prices. The result was the hollowing out of U.S. manufacturing and widespread damage to American workers and communities.
The acceleration began in the 1990s, when nations from the former Soviet bloc, India, China, and parts of Latin America entered the U.S.-led economic order. However, instead of leveling the playing field, powerful domestic interests in those countries captured the gains and resisted competitive reforms. This left U.S. firms exposed to unfair competition from imports bolstered by foreign subsidies, state favoritism, and other anti-competitive market distortions (ACMDs).
Enter the Trump tariffs. Controversial though they may be, they have jolted the global system. For the first time in decades, U.S. trading partners are seriously engaging on removing not only tariff barriers but also non-tariff ones—where the bulk of distortions lie. Our analysis shows that non-tariff ACMDs account for around 80% of the economic damage caused by trade distortions, yet global trade policy has focused almost entirely on the remaining 20%. This asymmetry has allowed foreign governments to quietly sustain wealth- and job-destroying policies.
What makes the current U.S. approach different is its dual-track strategy: demanding reform abroad while pursuing it at home. A new DOJ/FTC task force is examining how domestic regulations undermine competition, recognizing that ACMDs exist within the U.S. too. If successful, this effort could trigger a global rebalancing of the competitive landscape.
But removing distortions is only half the battle. Even in a fairer trading environment, success is not guaranteed. America’s workforce must be prepared for a radically different economic future—one shaped by automation, AI, and new industries not yet imagined. The analogy is apt: if the horse-and-buggy industry had been shielded from competition, the automobile may never have emerged. Similarly, removing distortions today will allow future industries to flourish. But who will build them?
This is where America’s education and workforce development systems must rise to the challenge. Unfortunately, the data are stark. U.S. students trail global peers in key subjects. According to the 2019 Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study, American eighth-graders performed poorly, ranking near the bottom among OECD nations. PISA scores in math have declined 13 points between 2018 and 2022, with the U.S. now 28th among 37 OECD countries. In STEM higher education, the U.S. lags far behind. Only 19.6% of U.S. degrees are in STEM fields, compared to 33% in China. In engineering, the disparity is worse: just 8% of U.S. degrees versus one-third in China.
This shortfall isn’t confined to high-skill sectors. In the vocational space, the U.S. lacks a formalized training track. While 42% of OECD students engage in vocational training, U.S. figures are difficult to assess due to limited reporting. Apprenticeship numbers tell the story: just 590,000 in the U.S. versus 1.3 million in Germany and 900,000 in the UK. As a result, America faces acute shortages of skilled tradespeople—from electricians to HVAC technicians to solar energy specialists.
And yet, amid concerns about automation displacing human workers, a critical opportunity is often overlooked: AI systems need continuous training. This is not just a technical necessity—it is a strategic imperative. Regular AI training ensures systems remain effective, trustworthy, and relevant. It is also a labor-intensive process that demands human judgment and contextual understanding. Here lies an opening: new graduates could be trained to support and shape AI systems, developing expertise and experience in the process. This is a promising career pathway that deserves far more attention.
To seize this moment, the U.S. must radically rethink its education system—from kindergarten through college and vocational training. We need more STEM courses, more vocational opportunities, and fewer degrees disconnected from real workforce needs. This is not about elitism or tech obsession; it is about preparing American workers for a future that is already arriving.
The Trump tariff doctrine may not be universally popular, but it has catalyzed long-overdue conversations about trade fairness and domestic reform. If America can stay the course—reforming its own regulations, pressing trading partners to dismantle their distortions, and investing in a future-ready workforce—then a brighter economic future for American workers is within reach.
We are only at the beginning of this journey. But continuing down the failed path of the past guarantees only further erosion of our industrial base and diminished opportunity for future generations. The time to act is now.
Shanker A. Singham is the CEO of Competere and former advisor to the UK Trade Secretary and USTR.
