The California high-speed rail debacle has become Exhibit A for why it is increasingly difficult for policymakers anywhere in America to bring large-scale infrastructure projects online, with the public suffering as a result.
In 2008, California voters approved “a $9.95 billion bond measure for an 800-mile High-Speed Train network” that was to connect San Francisco to Los Angeles, with trains running up to 220 miles per hour. The work was scheduled for completion in 2020. It was to emulate similar projects in Europe and Asia and be a game changer for American transportation.
Total cost for the project – the bonds’ principal and interest, federal assistance, and private investments – was estimated at $33 billion.
More than 17 years later, not a single train has run. The first rides are not expected until 2030, but just between Merced and Bakersfield. If all goes well, the San Francisco-to-Los Angeles route will be completed by 2038, 12 years from now.
Meanwhile, cost estimates have ballooned to $128 billion. The Trump Administration opposes the project and seeks to sever federal funds from it. Governor Gavin Newsom continues to champion it.
Whether or not the high-speed rail program begins operations in 2030, Californians need improved transportation -- immediately. Fortunately, the state is experiencing growth in air travel. Airport gates, capable of accommodating 500,000 passengers per year, are being added throughout the state.
Upwards of 50 new gates are expected by 2030, increasing capacity to move more than 25 million people each year. In September 2025, San Diego International Airport announced the completion of a new terminal with 19 gates and plans to add 11 more by 2028. Palm Springs is working to add seven new gates by 2030, with Sacramento aiming for six to eight by 2028. Additional gates are planned, and likely, at Los Angeles International and elsewhere.
New gates and terminals are immediately operable. Capacity expansion is iterative and incremental, so California can steadily increase its high-speed air transportation. It offers an immediate solution to California’s intercity congestion problems.
Because nearly every square inch of sky can be used for travel, aircraft are not confined to geographic lines or limitations, as trains are. Planes may travel point to point with no regard for tunnels or bridges, and they do not have to slow down to snake through terminals or bulldoze through dozens of miles of suburbs on the way in and out of cities.
Unlike railroads, which must be arranged in a linear pattern and whose tracks need to be entirely completed before they can be used, airports do not have such constraints. In Southern California, the Burbank Airport is 35 miles north of the John Wayne Airport in Santa Ana, while the Los Angeles International Airport is 70 miles west of San Bernardino International. This enables more manageable, flexible infrastructure costs.
As the new gates begin servicing flights between the Bay Area and Southern California, airlines will take advantage of high demand by optimizing gate performance through careful aircraft selection. Almost every one of these routes will be flown by narrow-body aircraft from either the Boeing 737 or Airbus A320 families.
This category of aircraft strikes the perfect balance for domestic routes. Typically holding 150-200 passengers, they are large enough to be economical, yet small enough for quick turnarounds between flights.
According to Cirium, a leading aviation analytics firm, Southwest Airlines, which operates the narrow-bodied Boeing 737s exclusively, accounts for as much as 40 percent of California air traffic. Southwest’s aircraft choice allows it to squeeze in more flights per day on high-demand routes like San Francisco to Los Angeles. Travel demand in California has organically led to airport expansion and specific aircraft selection.
Like other American megaregions, California is experiencing a surge in intercity travel demand. Highway infrastructure simply cannot keep up. As the California high-speed rail project continues to face budget overruns and delays, and general uncertainty, travelers literally will not wait around. They will turn to efficient, practical commercial air service.
The sooner commercial air service is expanded, the better people in California and elsewhere will be.
Paul Steidler is Senior Fellow with the Lexington Institute, a public policy think tank in Arlington, VA.
Paul Steidler is a Senior Fellow with the Lexington Institute, a public policy think tank based in Arlington, Virginia.
