About That '3 Percent of Expected Enrollment' Study

About That '3 Percent of Expected Enrollment' Study

Just a quick note: A lot of Obamacare critics are citing a new Avalere study finding that state exchanges are "averaging 3 percent of expected enrollment." The implication being that of every 100 people these exchanges should have enrolled by now, they've enrolled only 3.

But that's not what the study says; what it says is that the exchanges have already enrolled 3 percent of the people they're expected (based on CBO numbers) to enroll by the end of 2014. Maybe they should have enrolled more by now, but the 3 percent statistic by itself tells us nothing about that.

Avalere doesn't seem to think it's a problem: In the study's press release, the CEO is quoted as saying, "Enrollment in new programs begins slowly and often takes several months to build momentum." The release notes that Medicare Part D enrollment was similarly slow at first.

For those interested, here's a state-by-state chart they provide:

Robert VerBruggen is editor of RealClearPolicy. Twitter: @RAVerBruggen

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